Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: FOMC Minutes Loom as XAU Tests $4,900 Support – $5,000 Recovery Possible?
The market's anticipation of the FOMC minutes (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-holds-gains-thin-trading-markets-await-fed-minutes-us-gdp-2026-02-17/) on Wednesday is palpable. These minutes will offer a glimpse into the Fed's future actions, especially with the US PCE Price Index on the horizon on Friday. The current market dynamics are intriguing, with both gold and silver experiencing unique challenges.
Silver's Plunge: A Strong Dollar and Risk-On Sentiment
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at 75.1125, a 1.98% decline. The stronger dollar and investors' shift towards riskier assets are putting pressure on silver. This trend is not surprising, given that investors are increasingly favoring riskier assets, leaving silver under scrutiny.
Gold's Struggles: A Strong Dollar and Positive Risk Sentiment
Despite the likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts by the US central bank this year, the US dollar has been strengthening, currently near 97.15. This is despite a lack of clear reasons for its strength. The positive risk sentiment and the US dollar's resilience are making it challenging for gold, as investors move away from safe-haven assets.
However, the uncertainty surrounding potential second US-Iran nuclear talks (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/gold-falls-1-firmer-dollar-thin-asia-trade-2026-02-17/) could provide some support to gold, potentially limiting its losses.
Market Vigilance: Empire State Manufacturing Index and Fed Comments
Traders are on high alert for the upcoming Empire State Manufacturing Index and any comments from the Fed, which could introduce short-term volatility in the dollar and gold markets.
Gold Price Forecast: Testing $4,900 Support and Rebound Challenges
The recent failure to hold above $5,100 has resulted in small candles with large wicks, indicating a waiting supply. The 50-EMA is flattening near $4,990, while the 200-EMA at $4,685 provides support. Gold's price action is defined by Fibonacci levels between $4,859 (0.382) and $5,141 (0.618).
A break below $4,860 would create a negative gap below the 200-EMA, potentially leading to $4,685 and $4,543. Conversely, a gold price above $5,000 would offer insights into $5,141.
Trade Strategy: Sell below $4,850, targeting $4,690, with a stop-loss at $5,000.
Silver Price Forecast: Bearish Trends and $70 Support
Silver (XAG/USD) is sliding towards the $70 support level as the bearish structure intensifies. This downward trend is a result of the strong dollar and risk-on sentiment, further impacting silver's performance.
